09.04.2026 09:20

The U.S. dollar managed to claw back some of its recent losses, stabilising just above the 99.00 mark on Thursday after rallying from a low of 98.50 the day before. This resurgence of the traditionally safe‑haven currency appears to be driven by doubts surrounding Iran’s newly declared ceasefire.

Within hours of the ceasefire announcement, Iranian officials shut the strategic Strait of Hormuz as retaliation for a large‑scale Israeli strike in Lebanon. While both the United States and Israel insisted that Lebanon was not part of the agreement, Tehran claimed that three essential provisions of the pact had been breached, casting serious doubt on the prospect of further negotiations. Nevertheless, diplomatic channels remain open: Washington and Tehran have agreed to dispatch delegations for direct talks in Pakistan this Saturday.

Adding to the tension, former U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran of “additional action” should it fail to honour the ceasefire terms. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed a more hawkish tilt. Although the Fed still entertains the possibility of additional rate cuts, a few members suggested that tightening monetary policy could be on the table for the first time since the easing cycle began in August 2024.

On the data front, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for February is slated for release later Thursday. Analysts expect the figure to show relatively stable price pressures, a reading likely to be shrugged off by markets given that it precedes the latest conflict in Iran. The spotlight, however, will shift to the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) later this week, which should provide the first clear indication of how the war is influencing inflation. Consensus forecasts project headline CPI to climb to a 3.3 % year‑over‑year increase—the highest annual rate in almost two years—while core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, is also expected to rise.