09.04.2026 09:48
Fundstrat co‑founder Tom Lee announced that he believes the stock market has already hit its nadir, a view that, if it proves accurate, could spill over into Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and the wider cryptocurrency arena because the two asset classes have historically moved in tandem.
Lee argued on CNBC that the recent Iran cease‑fire signaled the end of the downward phase for equities, and he pinpointed a breakout above the S&P 500’s 200‑day moving average of 6,617 as the catalyst for a decisive upward thrust. By Thursday morning, e‑mini futures were already trading near 6,820, comfortably surpassing the level he identified.
His thesis rests on two observations. First, despite a sharp rise in oil prices—from $87 to $116 per barrel—and an intensifying conflict, the S&P 500 climbed from roughly 6,300 to 6,600 between mid‑March and early April, indicating that stocks were absorbing war‑related risk without collapsing.
Second, Lee labeled the cease‑fire as a “positive rate‑of‑change inflection.” Even if the truce proves temporary, the shift from escalation to de‑escalation sparked a 2.5% rally in equities, a 15% plunge in oil, and pushed the VIX below the 20‑point threshold within a single session.
The cryptocurrency market stands to benefit directly from an equity bottom. Bitcoin surged past $72,000 late Wednesday, coinciding with a 1.9% jump in S&P 500 futures. Since the onset of the conflict, every major risk‑on move has been a cross‑asset phenomenon, with stocks, precious metals and crypto advancing together in response to the same geopolitical triggers. A sustained rally in equities would likely lift digital assets along the same trajectory.
