07.04.2026 16:14
The USD/JPY pair hovered just below the 159.95 level on Tuesday, trading with a strong yet volatile character as global markets absorbed escalating tensions in the Middle East. Investors reacted sharply to a spike in conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, following a bold statement from former U.S. President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform. Trump warned that the United States would unleash severe repercussions if Iran did not comply with demands concerning the Strait of Hormuz, ominously remarking that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” The former president’s rhetoric suggested the possibility of nuclear escalation and reaffirmed a maximum‑pressure policy, a move that many market participants interpreted as a harbinger of further military activity.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic impasse widened when Iran shut all formal and informal channels of communication with the United States, effectively ending any near‑term chance of dialogue. This rupture heightens the likelihood of accidental miscalculation and rapid escalation, as negotiators are no longer able to de‑escalate through back‑channel talks.
From a technical standpoint, the 4‑hour chart shows USD/JPY sitting at 159.94, maintaining a modestly bullish stance. The currency pair is trading above both the 20‑period and 100‑period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the shorter SMA gradually rising above the longer one—a configuration that adds confirmation to the positive bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 61, comfortably above the 50 midline yet still far from over‑bought territory, which suggests that upside momentum remains steady and not yet exhausted.
Resistance is immediate at 159.95, and a clean break could expose the 160.03 threshold as the next key upside target. On the downside, initial support is found near 159.71, where a former horizontal support line merges with the ascending 20‑period SMA, creating a likely short‑term floor. A deeper dip would likely bring the price to 159.47, aligning with the underlying 100‑period SMA and marking a more significant and potentially sustained support level.
