06.04.2026 18:55
**Citrini Research Sends Analyst to Strait of Hormuz Amidst Heightened Tensions**
Amidst a flurry of satellite imagery analysis and official pronouncements attempting to gauge the impact of escalating tensions between Iran and the United States on the critical Strait of Hormuz, a lesser-known research firm, Citrini Research, has adopted a markedly unconventional strategy. The firm asserts it deployed an analyst directly into the region, aiming to gather firsthand observations of shipping activities. This bold move comes from a company previously recognized for its assertive, and often contrarian, market predictions, notably its bearish stance on the artificial intelligence sector earlier this year.
According to a report published on Substack, Citrini Research dispatched an analyst to Oman’s Musandam Peninsula. The analyst reportedly reached the Strait by boat, positioning themselves to directly observe maritime traffic navigating the strategically vital waterway—a chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. This initiative challenges the prevailing narrative dominating global financial markets, which largely posits the strait is effectively closed to commercial traffic.
The findings of the anonymous analyst, chosen for the sensitive nature of the operation, indicate a more nuanced picture. Contrary to widespread expectations of a complete shutdown of oil transit, the analyst observed vessels continuing to traverse the strait. The report states that ship traffic has been gradually increasing in recent days, reaching approximately 15 vessels daily, according to Citrini’s analysis. While these numbers remain significantly below normal levels, the observed increase suggests the disruption is partial and dynamic rather than absolute.
Citrini's post highlights instances of tankers passing through – four or five daily – while simultaneously remaining unregistered on the Automatic Identification System (AIS). The firm contends that actual shipping volume is likely higher than reflected in official data due to some vessels disabling their transponders, effectively concealing their movements from tracking systems. The report further notes an acceleration in traffic through the Qeshm channel over the past few days.
The analyst’s insights were further informed by interviews conducted with a diverse range of individuals familiar with the region, including fishermen, smugglers, and local officials. These conversations, detailed in the Substack post, aim to provide a ground-level perspective on the situation, offering a potential counterpoint to the more formal assessments typically found in mainstream news and financial analysis. Citrini Research did not immediately respond to requests for comment from CNBC.
