05.04.2026 22:52
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Geopolitical tensions are significantly impacting the precious metals market, particularly gold, as anxieties escalate globally. The XAU/USD pair experienced a slight gap downwards at the beginning of the week, with traders intensely focused on defending the crucial $4,600 support level during the early Asian trading hours. This vulnerability underscores a broader shift in investor sentiment, driven by escalating uncertainty surrounding the Middle East.
The situation dramatically intensified following a stark warning from United States President Donald Trump. His declaration – that Iran would face complete destruction if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed by Friday – ignited fears of a wider conflict. Adding to the pressure, Tehran responded with a veiled threat of retaliatory attacks targeting US infrastructure, suggesting a potential for a dangerous escalation beyond the current ten-day ceasefire.
Adding to the market’s volatility, several major financial centers are observing a holiday, with Asian and European markets closed for Easter Monday. This temporary absence of trading activity is expected to lead to a surge in activity when investors return in full force during the American trading session. Simultaneously, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been steadily climbing, reaching a monthly high of approximately $106 per barrel – a testament to the underlying energy market dynamics.
Looking at the technical indicators for the XAU/USD pair, the near-term outlook appears decidedly bearish. A review of the 4-hour chart reveals that the price has dipped below the rising 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently situated around $4,663. Crucially, the price remains well below the declining 100- and 200-period SMAs, which have historically acted as resistance levels at $4,700 and $4,900, respectively. Furthermore, momentum has shifted negatively, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreating from overbought territory and now hovering near the 50 line – a clear signal that buying pressure is waning.
Should selling pressure continue, immediate support is anticipated around $4,600, with a further potential drop to $4,560 if the downward trend persists. However, resistance is expected to mount quickly, with the 20-period SMA at $4,663 acting as the initial hurdle. Subsequent levels of resistance include $4,680 and the recent swing high of $4,785. To effectively reverse the current downward bias and potentially pave the way for a renewed upward trajectory, a sustained break above the $4,680 to $4,785 range would be absolutely necessary, requiring a significant demonstration of buying interest.
