05.04.2026 13:09
Bitcoin has been carving a downtrend since reaching its $126,000 peak in October 2025, now trading within a well‑defined descending channel. The last swing brought the price below the star‑torched price (STH) realized value, meaning that even recent purchases are being recorded at a loss. According to on‑chain analytics, 45.8 percent of the entire supply is currently structured as a loss, leaving just 54.12 percent in the green.
Whales, in particular, are bearing the brunt of the slide. In the first quarter of 2026, holders with between 100 and 10,000 BTC have racked up a staggering $30.9 billion in realized losses. Of those, the daily cost to the largest holders peaked at $337 million, as reported by a leading crypto‑tracking firm. This rate eclipses the highest daily loss ever recorded during the 2022 bear market, marking one of the most aggressive distribution cycles on record.
Long‑term investors have not fared much better. Glassnode’s data show a daily realized loss of roughly $200 million among assets held for extended periods. Historically, such persistent loss realization has rarely signified a market bottom; instead it has tended to appear before deeper contractions. During earlier cycles, when loss‑realization curves flattened to an average of $25 million per day, the market began to turn around.
Adding to the pressure, the simultaneous holding of star‑torched (STH) and long‑term (LTH) coins at a loss has remained exceptionally high. The averages for both pools—about 4,000 BTC per day from March through early April—illustrate a continuous swell of investors jettisoning positions. Confidence has frayed, and the fresh wave of realized losses confirms that many are fishing for an exit in the current climate.
What comes next? The prevailing mood could be interpreted as strategic tax‑loss harvesting by institutional and individual players alike, yet it also signals a looming shift toward capital preservation. With the market stretched thin by mounting losses, downside risk has magnified. As Bitcoin approaches another critical juncture, observers will be watching for signs that the tide may finally begin to reverse.
