03.04.2026 10:21
An airstrike struck a site belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Alborz Province, intensifying the ongoing U.S.–Israeli military campaign. According to recent market data, the probability that U.S. ground forces will enter Iran by April 30 has climbed to 66 %—up from 55 % the day before—reflecting heightened concern among traders.
The strike, part of a series of U.S.–Israeli attacks in central Iran, has prompted market participants to reassess the likelihood of a ground incursion. On April 30, the market rebounded to 66 % after a 6‑point dip earlier in the day, while the December 31 forecast now sits at 74.5 %, a 10‑point rise from the previous 64 %. Analysts anticipate a significant development before year‑end, with the odds increasing by roughly 9 points from April to December.
Liquidity on the April 30 contract is robust, with a trading volume of $2,338,269 in USDC. It requires an investment of $185,131 to shift the price by 5 points, underscoring deep market engagement. Participants view the strike as a serious escalation rather than a mere flare‑up, suggesting that the U.S. might consider deeper military involvement, potentially culminating in ground operations.
A “YES” share for April 30, priced at 66 ¢, pays $1 upon resolution, offering a 1.5‑fold return. Those betting on this outcome expect further escalations or official announcements within the next 28 days. Market watchers should monitor Pentagon briefings, CENTCOM statements, and congressional remarks; confirmation of troop movements or intensified rhetoric would likely lift the odds even further.
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