03.04.2026 07:00
**USD/CAD Maintains Strength Above 1.3900 as Markets Await US Employment Data**
According to internet sources, the US Dollar maintained its advantage against the Canadian Dollar on Friday, hovering around 1.3925 at the time of reporting, with the year-to-date high of 1.3966 within relatively close reach. The currency pair appears poised to secure its third consecutive weekly gain, as the Canadian Dollar faces pressure from risk-off sentiment driven by tensions surrounding Iran. Trading activity is expected to remain subdued throughout the session, with numerous markets closed in observance of the Good Friday bank holiday. Nevertheless, the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report during the American trading session is anticipated to draw considerable attention and could trigger significant foreign exchange movements given the limited liquidity conditions.
Market analysts project that US payrolls will demonstrate a substantial rebound in March. Industry consensus forecasts a net employment increase of 60,000 positions, which would partially compensate for the 92,000 decline recorded in February. The positive ADP employment figures released earlier this week, coupled with the robust US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, have collectively strengthened investor expectations regarding the March payroll data.
Simultaneously, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to dampen risk appetite among investors. The UN Security Council is slated to vote on a proposal put forward by Bahrain that would authorize nations to employ "all defensive means necessary" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—an initiative that has already been rejected by China's representatives, who hold veto power.
Economic data released on Thursday revealed that Canada's Merchandise Trade Balance deficit expanded to a six-month peak, reaching CAD 5.74 billion (USD 14.4 billion) in February. This widening deficit occurred as imports surged 8.4% to an unprecedented high of CAD 72.05 billion, offsetting the 6.4% increase in exports. Also on Thursday, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that the recent sharp rise in oil prices could complicate the central bank's policy decisions amid a labor market characterized as "low-hire, low-fire."
