03.04.2026 02:57
**News from internet sources:**
Following the coalition's strike on the B1 Bridge in Karaj, Iran has formally released a list of Gulf bridge targets, signaling a significant escalation in regional tensions.
The likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire materializing by April 7 has dramatically collapsed to just 2% YES, plummeting from 8% recorded merely a day earlier. This sharp downturn has sent ripples through multiple prediction markets. The April 15 ceasefire probability fell to 8% from 18%, while April 30 odds slipped to 24%. By May 31, the market reflected a 46% probability—still considerably lower than previous assessments. The most pronounced decline occurred in the April 15 market, which saw a substantial 10-point drop, suggesting traders view early April as an extremely unlikely timeframe for any de-escalation.
Trading volume in these markets remains substantial, with $535,930 in USDC exchanged across various sub-markets. Furthermore, $25,832 would be sufficient to move the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating significant liquidity and sensitivity to new information.
This strategic shift by Iran appears to favor military posturing over diplomatic engagement. For those who placed bets on an April 7 ceasefire, the potential return is staggering—traders could earn $1 per YES share, representing a 50-fold return at the current 2¢ price. Nevertheless, the current odds strongly suggest this outcome remains highly improbable unless a major diplomatic breakthrough occurs.
Market participants should closely monitor any communications from CENTCOM or the United Nations regarding peace negotiations. Additionally, announcements from intermediary nations such as Oman or Qatar could substantially influence these markets. The Sultan's potential involvement or any back-channel diplomatic meetings might unexpectedly alter current expectations.
