02.04.2026 16:54
According to multiple internet sources, the prediction market platform Polymarket has witnessed a dramatic surge in the perceived likelihood of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching $120 per barrel in 2026. The implied probability for this outcome has jumped to 65%, marking a significant 25 percentage point increase within the last day and an accelerated 10-point rise in just the past hour.
This rapid repricing is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing anxieties over potential supply disruptions, which are currently overshadowing the bearish influence of planned OPEC+ production hikes. The price movement reflects a broader market dynamic where WTI futures, hovering around $106, have already experienced a volatile session with gains exceeding 6%.
The specific contract in question, centered on WTI's performance in April 2026, employs an intraday resolution mechanism. Unlike traditional settlements tied to a closing price, this market will resolve to "yes" if the high of any one-minute trading candle for the active WTI futures contract in 2026 touches or exceeds $120. In instances where primary data feeds fail, the resolution will fall back to official high prices published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Analysts note that this marks a evolution from Polymarket's earlier oil-related markets, such as a March 2024 contract, which were structured around CME's year-end settlement prices. The platform has indicated it will continue to assess capital flows and adjust probabilities as the oil market's fundamental and speculative landscape evolves.
