02.08.2025 15:00
Bitcoin's price has plummeted, breaking through the crucial $115,000 support level and establishing a new low of roughly $112,700. This downward movement follows a period of consolidation lasting over two weeks, signifying a significant shift in market sentiment and sparking widespread concern among traders. The ability of Bitcoin to find substantial buyer support at these current levels is now paramount to price stabilization and preventing a more severe correction.
Analysis from CryptoQuant indicates a troubling trend: short-term holders (STHs) are unloading their Bitcoin at a loss, a classic sign of capitulation within the retail market. Over the past day, substantial volumes of Bitcoin have been transferred to exchanges at negative profit margins, clearly demonstrating weaker hands exiting the market. This intense selling pressure frequently characterizes the final stages of a correction, potentially presenting attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors. The next few trading days will be critical for Bitcoin's trajectory; regaining the $115,000 level is essential to restore a bullish market structure. Failure to do so could embolden bearish forces to push prices further down towards the $110,000 mark, highlighting the need for substantial institutional buying or fresh capital influx to counter the retail sell-off.
Analyst Maartunn's data reveals a striking 21,400 BTC sent to exchanges at a loss by STHs in the last 24 hours. This behavior is consistent with previous Bitcoin downturns, where fear and emotional responses to price volatility drive retail investors to sell at a loss. This capitulation often exacerbates market volatility, resulting in sharp, short-lived spikes in exchange supply. However, a contrasting picture emerges from on-chain data concerning institutional investors. The dwindling supply of Bitcoin held in Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks points to active buying by large investors during this correction. This discrepancy between retail capitulation and institutional accumulation suggests a healthy market reset, where weaker participants exit while stronger players consolidate their holdings.
Bitcoin’s momentum has undeniably shifted, transitioning from cautiously bullish to decidedly bearish. The recent breach of the $115,000 support significantly increases the likelihood of further price declines. Analysts are now keenly focused on the $112,000 level, a historically significant price point representing the previous all-time high (ATH) in May. Strong demand at this level could provide a critical foundation for a subsequent bullish surge. Conversely, a failure to find support here could signal further downside.
The recent price breakdown below $115,724, bringing Bitcoin to a current price of $113,737, reveals a distinct rejection at the $122,077 resistance, where multiple upward break attempts faltered over the past two weeks. This rejection amplified bearish momentum, pushing the price below both the 50 and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which now act as resistance levels. Bitcoin currently sits just above the 200-period SMA, a potential last line of defense for bullish sentiment. Holding this level might allow a rebound towards $115,000. Conversely, a lack of buyer demand could result in a descent towards $112,000, aligning with the previous May ATH. The accompanying volume spikes underscore significant selling pressure, likely fueled by short-term holders selling at a loss. Despite the short-term bearish technical indicators, broader market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic due to ongoing institutional accumulation. The upcoming trading sessions will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can reclaim $115,000 or if a further drop to $110,000 becomes inevitable.
