01.08.2025 23:01

The highly anticipated US non-farm payroll and unemployment figures have been released, sending ripples through global financial markets. The data revealed an unemployment rate of 4.2%, aligning with expectations. However, non-farm payrolls showed a less robust increase of 73,000 jobs, falling short of the projected 110,000. Private sector employment similarly underperformed, adding 83,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 100,000.

Further details highlighted a year-over-year increase in hourly earnings of 3.9%, slightly exceeding the forecast of 3.8%. Month-over-month hourly earnings remained steady at 0.3%, matching predictions. The labor force participation rate clocked in at 62.2%, marginally below the expected 62.3%. Manufacturing employment, conversely, experienced a decline of 11,000 jobs, surpassing the projected decrease of 3,000. Average weekly working hours edged up slightly to 34.3 hours, exceeding expectations by 0.1 hours. Finally, the broader U-6 unemployment rate stood at 7.9%.

Bitcoin's initial response to this data release followed a trend seen last month. Last month's NFP data, exceeding expectations by a significant 37,000 jobs (147,000 versus a forecast of 110,000), underscored the underlying strength of the US job market. Interestingly, while a strong correlation previously existed between US employment data and Euro yields (specifically for maturities up to two years), this relationship has considerably weakened recently, nearing zero correlation. In contrast, the connection between US employment data and British pound yields remains more pronounced, particularly affecting the sensitivity of 10-year British government bonds (Gilts) to fluctuations in US Treasuries.

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