31.07.2025 19:47

President Trump's threatened imposition of significant tariffs—30% on Mexican imports and 35% on Canadian goods—posed a substantial threat to the US economy, despite claims of USMCA exemptions. This action targeted Mexico and Canada, the United States' two largest import sources, comprising nearly 26% of all US import value and holding the top import spot in over 70% of product categories. The ramifications of such tariffs would have been widespread and deeply felt across numerous sectors.

The potential economic impact extended far beyond simple import costs. Industries like automotive manufacturing and the fruit and vegetable sector faced the prospect of significant disruption. Furthermore, retaliatory measures from Mexico and Canada, who represent over 30% of US export destinations, presented a considerable risk to US exporters. Analysis reveals that Mexico or Canada held the leading export position in a staggering 72% of all export categories, highlighting the potential for widespread repercussions from retaliatory tariffs.

Despite President Trump's assertion of USMCA compliance exemptions, the impact remained substantial. Based on US Census Bureau data analyzed through May, less than 25% of Mexican imports and less than 20% of Canadian imports were USMCA compliant. This represented a dramatic decline from 2024 figures, where Mexico boasted 48.9% compliance and Canada 37.9%. This sharp decrease is possibly attributable to heightened scrutiny from Customs and Border Protection. Subsequently, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the Mexican tariffs; however, the status of the Canadian tariffs remained uncertain at the time of this writing. The situation underscores the interconnectedness of North American trade and the potential for significant economic disruption from protectionist measures.