25.06.2025 08:56
A swift and unexpected drop in Brent crude oil prices occurred on Monday, following missile strikes by Iran on a US military base in Qatar. This downturn, defying typical market reactions to geopolitical instability, saw prices plummet by 7.2% within hours of the attacks.
The unusual response stemmed from a confluence of factors. Three hours prior to the strikes, a social media post by President Trump urged traders to remain calm and avoid inflating prices, a call that seemingly influenced market behavior. The speed and magnitude of the price decrease – a 7.2% drop, the sharpest in almost three years – was remarkable, occurring within minutes of the initial missile launch. While chaos unfolded on the ground – missiles arcing across the sky, civilians seeking safety, and news channels reporting frenzied updates – traders reacted with calculated calm.
This calculated response, analysts suggest, was informed by an assessment of the situation based on publicly available information. Oil traders, closely monitoring social media and open-source intelligence (OSINT) sources, had observed signs suggesting the targeted base in Qatar was largely unoccupied days before the attack. Analysis of satellite imagery revealed the absence of significant numbers of US troops, suggesting the strikes were more symbolic than a prelude to a wider conflict. This insight allowed traders to anticipate the lack of a major disruption to oil infrastructure and thus avoid a price surge driven by fear.
One trading firm executive emphasized the pervasive reliance on open-source intelligence. Traders, he noted, were actively using Twitter feeds and various OSINT accounts to interpret the evolving situation and inform their trading strategies. The information gleaned from these sources, combined with their analysis of the base's apparent emptiness, allowed them to make informed decisions, countering the expected market response to the geopolitical events. The incident highlights the increasingly significant role of readily available information in shaping modern financial markets.
