23.06.2025 17:11

According to a Reuters report citing two unnamed US officials, a swift Iranian retaliatory strike against American forces is deemed highly probable within the next couple of days. Despite this imminent threat, the US government continues its pursuit of a diplomatic solution to the escalating tensions.

One official, speaking directly to Reuters, voiced concerns that the Iranian response could materialize as early as 48 hours from the report's publication. This assessment significantly impacts global markets.

The US dollar has strengthened in response to the heightened geopolitical risk. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index shows a robust 0.52% daily increase, settling at 99.28. This reflects a shift towards "risk-off" sentiment among investors.

Investor behavior is often categorized as "risk-on" or "risk-off," reflecting their appetite for potentially higher-yielding but more volatile assets. "Risk-on" markets are characterized by optimism, leading to increased investment in stocks, most commodities (excluding gold), and cryptocurrencies. Currencies of major commodity exporters also tend to appreciate.

Conversely, a "risk-off" environment reflects investor apprehension. This typically results in a flight to safety, with increased demand for government bonds, gold, and safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the US dollar. Currencies heavily reliant on commodity exports, such as the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars, often perform well during "risk-on" periods but can suffer during "risk-off" periods. The current situation exemplifies this dynamic, showcasing the complex interplay between geopolitical events and global financial markets.