18.06.2025 14:46
The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has plunged global energy markets into a state of unprecedented uncertainty, leaving oil traders completely unable to predict future prices. For six consecutive days, the escalating military actions between the two nations have created a volatile situation with no clear end in sight.
Analysts across Wall Street and the Gulf region are struggling to formulate reliable projections; not a single expert dares offer a confident price forecast. The protracted nature of the conflict significantly complicates any short-term or long-term predictions regarding oil prices, making even next week's price virtually impossible to estimate. This uncertainty stems from the surprise Israeli airstrikes last Friday targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, provoking a swift and intense retaliatory response from Tehran, igniting a full-scale regional air war.
President Trump's subsequent demand for Iran's "unconditional surrender" and his thinly veiled threat of US military intervention further exacerbated the crisis. This was countered by Supreme Leader Khamenei's vow of "irreparable damage" should the US intervene militarily, escalating tensions considerably. The conflict's impact on oil supply is already evident. An Iranian missile strike on Israel's Bazan oil refinery, followed by Israeli counter-attacks on the South Pars gas field—the world's largest—led to Tehran curtailing some of its oil production.
The current disruptions to oil flow are tangible, heightening concerns among traders. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway controlling the flow of a significant portion of global oil supplies, has become a focal point of intense speculation. The potential for Iran to block this crucial chokepoint, once a theoretical concern, is now a very real possibility with potentially catastrophic global repercussions leading to an immediate and dramatic surge in oil prices.
John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, aptly described the current market sentiment as a "blanket of unease." In a recent report, Evans highlighted the challenges faced by traders operating in an environment marked by frequent missile exchanges, cautioning that the conflict's escalation could occur far more rapidly than anticipated, underscoring the fragility of the situation and the unpredictability of the oil market.
