13.06.2025 08:27
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, accurately forecasted Israeli military action against Iran two days prior to the event. The platform registered a significant increase in bets anticipating an Israeli attack, culminating in a 60% probability assigned just a day before the strikes commenced early Friday morning.
Following the confirmed attacks, Polymarket users swiftly adjusted their predictions, now focusing on the potential for Iranian retaliation. Interestingly, the platform's odds suggested a low probability (12%) of de-escalation by the following Friday, while the likelihood of Iran declaring war on Israel within the same timeframe dropped to 33% from a high of 55% earlier that morning. These fluctuating odds reflected the evolving geopolitical situation in real-time.
This large-scale Israeli operation, described by Israeli officials as crucial for national survival ("missions to preserve our existence"), targeted numerous Iranian nuclear and military sites. The scale of the operation was unprecedented in recent years; Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, IDF spokesperson, confirmed during a live briefing that over 100 targets were struck using more than 330 munitions in a precisely coordinated operation.
A key target of these strikes was Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant. Iranian state media confirmed multiple hits, providing visual evidence with footage depicting substantial fires and thick plumes of smoke billowing from the facility. While the full extent of the damage to the underground infrastructure remains uncertain, Israeli officials emphasized that the operation focused solely on military and nuclear program-related targets. This operation utilized thousands of advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment.
The early morning attacks also impacted Tehran, as videos circulating online showed multiple fires and smoke in the city's northern districts. This visual evidence corroborated the scale and impact of the Israeli military action across Iranian territory. The post-strike assessments from Polymarket and the confirmation of the attacks via official statements and online video evidence paint a comprehensive picture of the unfolding events. Current predictions on Polymarket place the likelihood of Israel declaring war on Iran within the next week at 25%.
